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Carlos A. Mannucci vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cienciano
Cienciano
8/26/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci39%
×Draw27%
Cienciano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.33
Cienciano
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 106 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.13
Cienciano
1.21

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.24
Cienciano
1.54

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
66%
Carlos A. Mannucci or Cienciano
73%
Draw or Cienciano
61%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
18%
Cienciano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
74%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
38%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
15%
Cienciano 1+ goals
71%
Cienciano 2+ goals
35%
Cienciano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
53%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cienciano attack 1.21 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
39%
level
27%
Cienciano scores more
34%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Carlos A. Mannucci 2–0 Cienciano

Carlos A. Mannucci beat Cienciano 2-0 in Primera División on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.