Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3–0 Benešov: Result & Stats

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Benešov

6/15/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 16Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov44%

×Draw24%

Benešov31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cidlina Novy BydzovExpected goals in this matchBenešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.61

Benešov

1.31

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.43

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.43

Benešov

1.20

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.43

Benešov

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw

69%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Benešov

76%

Draw or Benešov

56%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+

23%

Benešov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals

80%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals

48%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals

22%

Benešov 1+ goals

73%

Benešov 2+ goals

38%

Benešov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)

59%

Benešov (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Benešov away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Benešov attack 1.20 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more

44%

level

24%

Benešov scores more

31%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff