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Benešov vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benešov
Benešov
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
8/5/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 1Stadion u Konopiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Benešov48%
×Draw22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benešov
2.00
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.55

Benešov creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Benešov
2.07
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Benešov
1.80
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Benešov+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benešov ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Benešov or draw
70%
Benešov or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
78%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
52%

Winning margin

Benešov wins by 2+
27%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benešov 1+ goals
86%
Benešov 2+ goals
59%
Benešov 3+ goals
32%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
79%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
46%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Benešov (draw refunded)
61%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benešov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benešov attack 2.07 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benešov scores more
48%
level
22%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
30%

Benešov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Benešov 5–1 Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Benešov beat Cidlina Novy Bydzov 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Konopiště in Benešov.