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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Benátky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
3/19/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov33%
×Draw25%
Benátky nad Jizerou43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.34
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.57

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.71

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.25

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
57%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Benátky nad Jizerou
75%
Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou
67%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
14%
Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
74%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
39%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
15%
Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
79%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
46%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
43%
Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
33%
level
25%
Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
43%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Cidlina Novy Bydzov 0–4 Benátky nad Jizerou

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Cidlina Novy Bydzov 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.