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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
8/21/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou62%
×Draw20%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.17
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.07

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 103% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
2.40
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
0.85
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
82%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
80%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
38%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
39%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
89%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
64%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
36%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
66%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
29%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
78%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.85 · 55 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 2.40 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
62%
level
20%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
18%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Benátky nad Jizerou 1–1 Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Benátky nad Jizerou and Cidlina Novy Bydzov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.