Cibao 3–0 Atlético de SF: Result & Stats

Cibao

FT

3 – 0

Atlético de SF

6/5/2021

Liga Mayor · Round 8Estadio Cibao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Cibao74%

×Draw17%

Atlético de SF10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CibaoExpected goals in this matchAtlético de SF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.70

Cibao

2.33

Atlético de SF

0.70

Cibao creates 233% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 9 away

1.87

creates per match

0.67

0.72

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Cibao

1.87

Atlético de SF

0.67

allows per match

Cibao

0.72

Atlético de SF

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cibao+0.00on par

Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cibao ↓

Atlético de SF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cibao or draw

90%

Cibao or Atlético de SF

83%

Draw or Atlético de SF

26%

Winning margin

Cibao wins by 2+

50%

Atlético de SF wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Cibao 1+ goals

90%

Cibao 2+ goals

67%

Cibao 3+ goals

41%

Atlético de SF 1+ goals

50%

Atlético de SF 2+ goals

16%

Atlético de SF 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Cibao (draw refunded)

89%

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cibao at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 85 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cibao attack 1.87 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.33

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Cibao defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Cibao scores more

74%

level

17%

Atlético de SF scores more

10%

Cibao at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cibao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff