Atlético de SF 1–2 Cibao: Result & Stats

Atlético de SF

FT

1 – 2

Cibao

7/10/2021

Liga Mayor · Round 16Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético de SF20%

×Draw24%

Cibao56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético de SFExpected goals in this matchCibao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.68

Atlético de SF

0.90

Cibao

1.68

Cibao creates 87% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 82 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

1.78

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Atlético de SF

1.00

Cibao

1.57

allows per match

Atlético de SF

1.78

Cibao

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Cibao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético de SF ↓

Cibao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlético de SF or draw

44%

Atlético de SF or Cibao

76%

Draw or Cibao

80%

Winning margin

Atlético de SF wins by 2+

7%

Cibao wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Atlético de SF 1+ goals

59%

Atlético de SF 2+ goals

23%

Atlético de SF 3+ goals

6%

Cibao 1+ goals

81%

Cibao 2+ goals

50%

Cibao 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)

26%

Cibao (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético de SF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Cibao away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético de SF attack 1.00 + Cibao defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Cibao attack 1.57 + Atlético de SF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético de SF scores more

20%

level

24%

Cibao scores more

56%

Cibao at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cibao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff