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Chrudim II vs Benešov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Chrudim II
Chrudim II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Benešov
Benešov
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Stadion UMT MFK Chrudim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chrudim II50%
×Draw22%
Benešov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrudim II
1.92
Benešov
1.40

Chrudim II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chrudim II
2.04
Benešov
1.20

allows per match

Chrudim II
1.60
Benešov
1.80

finishing

Chrudim II+0.00on par
Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrudim II ↓

Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chrudim II or draw
72%
Chrudim II or Benešov
78%
Draw or Benešov
50%

Winning margin

Chrudim II wins by 2+
28%
Benešov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chrudim II 1+ goals
85%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
57%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
30%
Benešov 1+ goals
75%
Benešov 2+ goals
41%
Benešov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Chrudim II (draw refunded)
64%
Benešov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrudim II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Benešov away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrudim II attack 2.04 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.92

Benešov attack 1.20 + Chrudim II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrudim II scores more
50%
level
22%
Benešov scores more
28%

Chrudim II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chrudim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrudim II vs Benešov

Chrudim II and Benešov drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion UMT MFK Chrudim in Chrudim.