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Benešov vs Chrudim II — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Benešov
Benešov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chrudim II
Chrudim II
6/8/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 30Stadion u Konopiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Benešov48%
×Draw22%
Chrudim II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benešov
1.98
Chrudim II
1.56

Benešov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Benešov
2.07
Chrudim II
1.31

allows per match

Benešov
1.80
Chrudim II
1.89

finishing

Benešov+0.00on par
Chrudim II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benešov ↓

Chrudim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Benešov or draw
69%
Benešov or Chrudim II
78%
Draw or Chrudim II
52%

Winning margin

Benešov wins by 2+
27%
Chrudim II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benešov 1+ goals
86%
Benešov 2+ goals
59%
Benešov 3+ goals
31%
Chrudim II 1+ goals
79%
Chrudim II 2+ goals
46%
Chrudim II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Benešov (draw refunded)
61%
Chrudim II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benešov at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Chrudim II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benešov attack 2.07 + Chrudim II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.98

Chrudim II attack 1.31 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benešov scores more
48%
level
22%
Chrudim II scores more
31%

Benešov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Benešov 1–2 Chrudim II

Chrudim II beat Benešov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Konopiště in Benešov.