Chrobry Głogów vs Ślęza Wrocław

Chrobry Głogów

Preview

08:00

Ślęza Wrocław

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

68%

Chrobry Głogów

model favours

68%16%16%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

76%

over 2.5 goals

68%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chrobry Głogów68%

×Draw16%

Ślęza Wrocław16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry GłogówExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.28

Chrobry Głogów

2.78

Ślęza Wrocław

1.28

Chrobry Głogów creates 117% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

2.23

creates per match

1.33

1.23

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów

2.23

Ślęza Wrocław

1.33

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów

1.23

Ślęza Wrocław

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw

84%

Chrobry Głogów or Ślęza Wrocław

84%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

32%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

47%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

94%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

76%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

51%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

72%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

37%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

81%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 2.23 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.78

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.33 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more

68%

level

16%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

16%

Chrobry Głogów at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Głogów

WLLWL

Wrocław

LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff