Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chrobry Głogów vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
10/26/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion GOS (Głogów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów43%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
1.50
Bytovia Bytów
1.27

Chrobry Głogów creates 18% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.25
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.06
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
68%
Chrobry Głogów or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
57%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
21%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
78%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
44%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
19%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
36%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
57%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.25 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
43%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
32%

Chrobry Głogów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów vs Bytovia Bytów

Chrobry Głogów and Bytovia Bytów drew 0-0 in I Liga on October 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion GOS (Głogów).