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Bytovia Bytów vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2018

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
5/11/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 33Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów43%
×Draw27%
Chrobry Głogów30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.38
Chrobry Głogów
1.11

Bytovia Bytów creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 138 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Chrobry Głogów
1.04

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Chrobry Głogów
1.57

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
70%
Bytovia Bytów or Chrobry Głogów
73%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
57%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
20%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
75%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
40%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
16%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
67%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
30%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
59%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.04 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
43%
level
27%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
30%

Bytovia Bytów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs Chrobry Głogów

Bytovia Bytów and Chrobry Głogów drew 1-1 in I Liga on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Bytów).