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Chrobry Głogów II vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
1 – 3
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
9/17/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II28%
×Draw21%
Carina Gubin51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.49
Carina Gubin
2.08

Carina Gubin creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
49%
Chrobry Głogów II or Carina Gubin
79%
Draw or Carina Gubin
72%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
13%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
77%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
44%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
19%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
87%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
61%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
35%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.49

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
28%
level
21%
Carina Gubin scores more
51%

Carina Gubin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Chrobry Głogów II 1–3 Carina Gubin

Carina Gubin beat Chrobry Głogów II 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.