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Carina Gubin vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
1 – 2
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
4/22/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Carina Gubin43%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.42
Chrobry Głogów II
1.15

Carina Gubin creates 23% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
69%
Carina Gubin or Chrobry Głogów II
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
57%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
21%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
76%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
41%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
17%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
68%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
32%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
59%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
43%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
31%

Carina Gubin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Carina Gubin 1–2 Chrobry Głogów II

Chrobry Głogów II beat Carina Gubin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.