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Chornomorets II vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Chornomorets II
Chornomorets II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
10/27/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 18SK Lyustdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chornomorets II14%
×Draw19%
Alians Lypova Dolyna68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chornomorets II
0.90
Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.25

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 150% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chornomorets II
1.10
Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.60

allows per match

Chornomorets II
1.90
Alians Lypova Dolyna
0.70

finishing

Chornomorets II+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chornomorets II ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chornomorets II or draw
32%
Chornomorets II or Alians Lypova Dolyna
81%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
86%

Winning margin

Chornomorets II wins by 2+
4%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Chornomorets II 1+ goals
59%
Chornomorets II 2+ goals
23%
Chornomorets II 3+ goals
6%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
89%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
65%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Chornomorets II (draw refunded)
17%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chornomorets II at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chornomorets II attack 1.10 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.90

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.60 + Chornomorets II defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chornomorets II scores more
14%
level
19%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
68%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group B: Chornomorets II 1–5 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Chornomorets II 5-1 in Druha Liga - Group B on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at SK Lyustdorf in Odessa.