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Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Chornomorets II — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chornomorets II
Chornomorets II
9/4/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 7Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna78%
×Draw15%
Chornomorets II7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.40
Chornomorets II
0.55

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 336% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
2.50
Chornomorets II
0.60

allows per match

Alians Lypova Dolyna
0.50
Chornomorets II
2.30

finishing

Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par
Chornomorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alians Lypova Dolyna ↓

Chornomorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Alians Lypova Dolyna or draw
93%
Alians Lypova Dolyna or Chornomorets II
85%
Draw or Chornomorets II
22%

Winning margin

Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
55%
Chornomorets II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
91%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
69%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
42%
Chornomorets II 1+ goals
42%
Chornomorets II 2+ goals
11%
Chornomorets II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
92%
Chornomorets II (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alians Lypova Dolyna at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Chornomorets II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 2.50 + Chornomorets II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

Chornomorets II attack 0.60 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
78%
level
15%
Chornomorets II scores more
7%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alians Lypova Dolyna vs Chornomorets II

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Chornomorets II 4-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on September 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Sumy.