Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chooka Talesh vs Chadormalu SC — Azadegan League 2018

Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
FT
1 – 2
Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
12/19/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chooka Talesh27%
×Draw29%
Chadormalu SC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chooka Talesh
0.88
Chadormalu SC
1.21

Chadormalu SC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Chooka Talesh
1.15
Chadormalu SC
1.16

allows per match

Chooka Talesh
1.27
Chadormalu SC
0.61

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par
Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Chadormalu SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw
56%
Chooka Talesh or Chadormalu SC
71%
Draw or Chadormalu SC
73%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
9%
Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
59%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
22%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
6%
Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
70%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
34%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
38%
Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.88

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more
27%
level
29%
Chadormalu SC scores more
44%

Chadormalu SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chooka Talesh vs Chadormalu SC

Chadormalu SC beat Chooka Talesh 2-1 in Azadegan League on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Pouria Vali Talesh Stadium in Talesh.