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Chadormalu SC vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
5/10/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC55%
×Draw26%
Chooka Talesh19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.51
Chooka Talesh
0.76

Chadormalu SC creates 99% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
81%
Chadormalu SC or Chooka Talesh
74%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
45%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
29%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
78%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
44%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
19%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
53%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
18%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
75%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
55%
level
26%
Chooka Talesh scores more
19%

Chadormalu SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Chooka Talesh

Chadormalu SC and Chooka Talesh drew 3-3 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.