Chooka Talesh 2–4 Baderan Tehran: Result & Stats

Chooka Talesh

FT

2 – 4

Baderan Tehran

2/14/2021

Azadegan League · Round 14Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chooka Talesh33%

×Draw28%

Baderan Tehran39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chooka TaleshExpected goals in this matchBaderan Tehran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.25

Chooka Talesh

1.13

Baderan Tehran

1.25

Baderan Tehran creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

1.15

creates per match

1.22

1.27

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Chooka Talesh

1.15

Baderan Tehran

1.22

allows per match

Chooka Talesh

1.27

Baderan Tehran

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chooka Talesh ↓

Baderan Tehran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chooka Talesh or draw

61%

Chooka Talesh or Baderan Tehran

72%

Draw or Baderan Tehran

67%

Winning margin

Chooka Talesh wins by 2+

13%

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chooka Talesh 1+ goals

68%

Chooka Talesh 2+ goals

31%

Chooka Talesh 3+ goals

11%

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals

71%

Baderan Tehran 2+ goals

36%

Baderan Tehran 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)

46%

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chooka Talesh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chooka Talesh attack 1.15 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chooka Talesh scores more

33%

level

28%

Baderan Tehran scores more

39%

Baderan Tehran at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff