Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baderan Tehran vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
0 – 0
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
6/27/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Kargaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Baderan Tehran55%
×Draw26%
Chooka Talesh18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.50
Chooka Talesh
0.74

Baderan Tehran creates 103% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
82%
Baderan Tehran or Chooka Talesh
74%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
45%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
29%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
78%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
44%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
19%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
52%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
17%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
75%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
55%
level
26%
Chooka Talesh scores more
18%

Baderan Tehran at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baderan Tehran vs Chooka Talesh

Baderan Tehran and Chooka Talesh drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kargaran Stadium in Teheran.