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Chongqing Lifan vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
3/9/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Chongqing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan34%
×Draw25%
Beijing Guoan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Beijing Guoan
1.47

Beijing Guoan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 121 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
60%
Chongqing Lifan or Beijing Guoan
75%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
66%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
15%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
74%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
39%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
15%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
43%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
46%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
34%
level
25%
Beijing Guoan scores more
40%

Beijing Guoan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chongqing Lifan vs Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan beat Chongqing Lifan 4-0 in Super League on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Chongqing Olympic Sports Center in Chongqing.