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Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
7/10/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Beijing Guoan56%
×Draw22%
Chongqing Lifan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.02
Chongqing Lifan
1.20

Beijing Guoan creates 68% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 50 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
78%
Beijing Guoan or Chongqing Lifan
78%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
44%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
33%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
87%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
60%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
33%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
70%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
34%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
72%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
56%
level
22%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
22%

Beijing Guoan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Beijing Guoan 4–1 Chongqing Lifan

Beijing Guoan beat Chongqing Lifan 4-1 in Super League on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.