Chomutov 2–0 Český Brod: Result & Stats

Chomutov

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Český Brod

3/23/2024

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 19Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Chomutov53%

×Draw24%

Český Brod23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChomutovExpected goals in this matchČeský Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.05

Chomutov

1.70

Český Brod

1.05

Chomutov creates 62% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

2.08

creates per match

1.08

1.02

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Chomutov

2.08

Český Brod

1.08

allows per match

Chomutov

1.02

Český Brod

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par

Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Český Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw

77%

Chomutov or Český Brod

76%

Draw or Český Brod

47%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+

29%

Český Brod wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals

82%

Chomutov 2+ goals

51%

Chomutov 3+ goals

24%

Český Brod 1+ goals

65%

Český Brod 2+ goals

28%

Český Brod 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)

69%

Český Brod (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.70

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chomutov scores more

53%

level

24%

Český Brod scores more

23%

Chomutov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff