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Český Brod vs Chomutov — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Český Brod
Český Brod
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chomutov
Chomutov
3/4/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16Stadion Na Kutilce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Český Brod44%
×Draw23%
Chomutov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český Brod
1.72
Chomutov
1.43

Český Brod creates 20% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 67 away

creates per match

Český Brod
2.18
Chomutov
1.60

allows per match

Český Brod
1.26
Chomutov
1.25

finishing

Český Brod+0.00on par
Chomutov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český Brod ↓

Chomutov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Český Brod or draw
68%
Český Brod or Chomutov
77%
Draw or Chomutov
56%

Winning margin

Český Brod wins by 2+
23%
Chomutov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Český Brod 1+ goals
82%
Český Brod 2+ goals
51%
Český Brod 3+ goals
25%
Chomutov 1+ goals
76%
Chomutov 2+ goals
42%
Chomutov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Český Brod (draw refunded)
58%
Chomutov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český Brod at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Chomutov away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český Brod attack 2.18 + Chomutov defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Chomutov attack 1.60 + Český Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Český Brod scores more
44%
level
23%
Chomutov scores more
32%

Český Brod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Český Brod 0–1 Chomutov

Chomutov beat Český Brod 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Kutilce in Český Brod.