Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2–1 Přepeře: Result & Stats

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Přepeře

8/20/2023

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 3Městský fotbalový stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou48%

×Draw23%

Přepeře30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chlumec nad CidlinouExpected goals in this matchPřepeře

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.42

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.86

Přepeře

1.42

Chlumec nad Cidlinou creates 31% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

1.71

creates per match

1.35

1.48

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.71

Přepeře

1.35

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou

1.48

Přepeře

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Přepeře+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Přepeře →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw

70%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Přepeře

77%

Draw or Přepeře

52%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+

26%

Přepeře wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals

84%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals

55%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals

28%

Přepeře 1+ goals

76%

Přepeře 2+ goals

41%

Přepeře 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)

62%

Přepeře (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Přepeře away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Přepeře defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Přepeře attack 1.35 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more

48%

level

23%

Přepeře scores more

30%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff