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Chlumec nad Cidlinou vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
6/8/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 30Městský fotbalový stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou43%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.74
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.52

Chlumec nad Cidlinou creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.71
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.55

allows per match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.48
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.77

finishing

Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chlumec nad Cidlinou ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chlumec nad Cidlinou or draw
66%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou or Arsenal Česká Lípa
77%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
57%

Winning margin

Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
82%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
52%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
25%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
78%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
45%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
56%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 65 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.71 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.74

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.55 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
43%
level
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
34%

Chlumec nad Cidlinou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chlumec nad Cidlinou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3–2 Arsenal Česká Lípa

Chlumec nad Cidlinou beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion in Chlumec nad Cidlinou.