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Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
11/11/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa52%
×Draw23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.86
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.23

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 51% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 65 away

creates per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.87
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.45

allows per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.02
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.85

finishing

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par
Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Česká Lípa ↓

Chlumec nad Cidlinou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw
75%
Arsenal Česká Lípa or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
77%
Draw or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
48%

Winning margin

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
29%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
84%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
55%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
28%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
71%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
35%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
67%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.85 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.87 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.45 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
52%
level
23%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
25%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Chlumec nad Cidlinou beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Lokotrans Aréna in Mladá Boleslav.