Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chita vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chita
Chita
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
4/30/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chita35%
×Draw25%
Chertanovo Moscow40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chita
1.38
Chertanovo Moscow
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Chita
1.23
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Chita
1.31
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Chita+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chita ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chita or draw
60%
Chita or Chertanovo Moscow
75%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
65%

Winning margin

Chita wins by 2+
16%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chita 1+ goals
75%
Chita 2+ goals
40%
Chita 3+ goals
16%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
77%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
43%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chita (draw refunded)
47%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chita at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chita attack 1.23 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Chita defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chita scores more
35%
level
25%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
40%

Chertanovo Moscow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chita vs Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Chita 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Chita.