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Chertanovo Moscow vs Chita — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chita
Chita
6/5/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow60%
×Draw22%
Chita18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.94
Chita
0.96

Chertanovo Moscow creates 102% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 27 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Chita
0.70

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Chita
2.33

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Chita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
82%
Chertanovo Moscow or Chita
78%
Draw or Chita
40%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
36%
Chita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
86%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
58%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
30%
Chita 1+ goals
62%
Chita 2+ goals
25%
Chita 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
77%
Chita (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Chita attack 0.70 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
60%
level
22%
Chita scores more
18%

Chertanovo Moscow at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Chita

Chertanovo Moscow beat Chita 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.