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Chions vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Chions
Chions
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
I. Bolgan 87'
E. Valenta 45'
A. Maspero 50'
M. Tirelli 48'
4/14/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chions45%
×Draw26%
Atletico Castegnato29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chions
1.44
Atletico Castegnato
1.11

Chions creates 30% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chions
1.18
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Chions
1.16
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Chions+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chions ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chions or draw
71%
Chions or Atletico Castegnato
74%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
55%

Winning margin

Chions wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chions 1+ goals
76%
Chions 2+ goals
42%
Chions 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
67%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chions (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chions at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chions attack 1.18 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Chions defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chions scores more
45%
level
26%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
29%

Chions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
E. Valenta
48'
M. Tirelli
50'
A. Maspero
87'
I. Bolgan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Chions 2–2 Atletico Castegnato

Chions and Atletico Castegnato drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on April 14, 2024.

Goals: E. Valenta (45'), M. Tirelli (48'), A. Maspero (50'), I. Bolgan (87').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Francesco Tesolin in Chions.