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Atletico Castegnato vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chions
Chions
12/3/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Comunale Castegnato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletico Castegnato41%
×Draw25%
Chions35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Castegnato
1.54
Chions
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.24
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Atletico Castegnato
1.71
Chions
1.84

finishing

Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Castegnato ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico Castegnato or draw
65%
Atletico Castegnato or Chions
75%
Draw or Chions
59%

Winning margin

Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
20%
Chions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
79%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
45%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
20%
Chions 1+ goals
76%
Chions 2+ goals
41%
Chions 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
54%
Chions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Castegnato at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.24 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chions attack 1.10 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atletico Castegnato scores more
41%
level
25%
Chions scores more
35%

Atletico Castegnato at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atletico Castegnato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Atletico Castegnato 3–1 Chions

Atletico Castegnato beat Chions 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Castegnato in Castegnato.