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Chindia Targoviste vs Progresul Spartac — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Progresul Spartac
Progresul Spartac
Unknown 78', 66', 64', 32', 27'
Unknown 53', 40'
2/6/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chindia Targoviste79%
×Draw12%
Progresul Spartac9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
3.63
Progresul Spartac
1.25

Chindia Targoviste creates 190% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
2.25
Progresul Spartac
1.00

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.50
Progresul Spartac
5.00

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Progresul Spartac+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Progresul Spartac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
91%
Chindia Targoviste or Progresul Spartac
88%
Draw or Progresul Spartac
21%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
62%
Progresul Spartac wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
97%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
87%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
68%
Progresul Spartac 1+ goals
71%
Progresul Spartac 2+ goals
36%
Progresul Spartac 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
89%
Progresul Spartac (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Progresul Spartac away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 2.25 + Progresul Spartac defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.63

Progresul Spartac attack 1.00 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
79%
level
12%
Progresul Spartac scores more
9%

Chindia Targoviste at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
32'
40'
53'
64'
66'
78'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chindia Targoviste 5 – 2 Progresul Spartac

Chindia Targoviste beat Progresul Spartac 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 6, 2026.

Goals: ? (27', 32', 40', 53', 64', 66', 78').