Chindia Targoviste vs Progresul Spartac — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Chindia Targoviste55%
Progresul Spartac21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chindia Targoviste creates 77% more chances
Season form · 54 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chindia Targoviste ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches
Progresul Spartac away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chindia Targoviste attack 1.81 + Progresul Spartac defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.75
Progresul Spartac attack 0.92 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Chindia Targoviste at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Corvinul Hunedoara
FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
ASA Targu Mures
Metalul Buzău
Bihor Oradea
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Slatina
FC Bacau
Concordia
Politehnica Iasi
CSM ReşiţaChindia Targoviste
CS Afumati
Gloria Bistriţa
Viitorul Şelimbăr
Dumbrăviţa
CSM Satu Mare
Tunari
CS Dinamo București
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Muscelul Câmpulung EliteIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chindia Targoviste host Progresul Spartac on Saturday, 7 October 2023 at 08:00. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 3–0 Progresul Spartac
Chindia Targoviste beat Progresul Spartac 3-0 in Liga II on October 7, 2023.
Goals: C. Golofca (11', 26'), R. Moldoveanu (78').
The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Târgovişte.