Chindia Targoviste 1–1 CS Universitatea Craiova

Chindia Targoviste

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CS Universitatea Craiova

O. Bic 62'

A. Cicâldău 64'

11/9/2019

Liga I · Round 16Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chindia Targoviste31%

×Draw28%

CS Universitatea Craiova42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chindia TargovisteExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.31

Chindia Targoviste

1.08

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.31

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 155 away

1.05

creates per match

1.38

1.25

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.05

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste

1.25

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw

58%

Chindia Targoviste or CS Universitatea Craiova

72%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

69%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

12%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

66%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

29%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

10%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

73%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

38%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

42%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.05 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more

31%

level

28%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

42%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

50'

52'

57'

60'

62'

O. Bic↳ R. Neciu

63'

S. Acka← M. Bălașa

64'

A. Cicâldău

65'

A. Ioniţă← A. Ivanov

68'

G. Zakarić← V. Mihăilă

74'

Blaise Yaméogo

77'

M. Voduț← I. Dumiter

80'

D. Dumitrașcu← R. Neciu

89'

D. Novac← C. Neguţ

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ChindiaCS

Overview

45%Possession55%

4Total Shots13

3Corners5

13Fouls19

Shots

4Total Shots13

1On Target6

3Off Target7

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0