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Chindia Targoviste vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
4/14/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 30Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste64%
×Draw21%
ACS Poli Timisoara15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.96
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.80

Chindia Targoviste creates 145% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
85%
Chindia Targoviste or ACS Poli Timisoara
79%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
36%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
39%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
86%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
58%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
31%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
55%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
19%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
82%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
64%
level
21%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
15%

Chindia Targoviste at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 1–0 ACS Poli Timisoara

Chindia Targoviste beat ACS Poli Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).