ACS Poli Timisoara 1–3 Chindia Targoviste

ACS Poli Timisoara

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Chindia Targoviste

10/10/2018

Liga II · Round 11Stadionul Electrica (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ACS Poli Timisoara28%

×Draw27%

Chindia Targoviste45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ACS Poli TimisoaraExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.39

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.05

Chindia Targoviste

1.39

Chindia Targoviste creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

1.05

creates per match

1.25

1.53

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.05

Chindia Targoviste

1.25

allows per match

ACS Poli Timisoara

1.53

Chindia Targoviste

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Poli Timisoara ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ACS Poli Timisoara or draw

55%

ACS Poli Timisoara or Chindia Targoviste

73%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

72%

Winning margin

ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+

11%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals

65%

ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals

28%

ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals

9%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

75%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

40%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)

39%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Poli Timisoara at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 1.05 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ACS Poli Timisoara scores more

28%

level

27%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

45%

Chindia Targoviste at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff