Chikhura Sachkhere 0–0 Samgurali: Result & Stats

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Samgurali

9/24/2011

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group B - 6Dzveli Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere24%

×Draw24%

Samgurali53%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchSamgurali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.74

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.08

Samgurali

1.74

Samgurali creates 61% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

0.84

creates per match

0.80

2.68

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.84

Samgurali

0.80

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

2.68

Samgurali

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Samgurali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

47%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Samgurali

76%

Draw or Samgurali

76%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

9%

Samgurali wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

66%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

29%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

10%

Samgurali 1+ goals

82%

Samgurali 2+ goals

52%

Samgurali 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

31%

Samgurali (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

Samgurali away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.84 + Samgurali defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Samgurali attack 0.80 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

24%

level

24%

Samgurali scores more

53%

Samgurali at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

N. Gusharashvili← T. Mumladze

69'

L. Khokhonishvili← R. Chikhladze

74'

N. Ugrekhelidze← L. Tskhadadze

80'

I. Liluashvili← L. Chikvaidze

81'

G. Bukhaidze← R. Kvernadze

Chikhura

Samgurali

Manager: L. Nozadze

21'▲N. Gusharashvili←▼T. Mumladze

80'▲I. Liluashvili←▼L. Chikvaidze

Chikhura Sachkhere substitutes

GusharashviliLiluashviliMtskerashviliKimadzeZivzivadzeVashakidzeIvanishvili

Manager: B. Khatchiperadze

69'▲L. Khokhonishvili←▼R. Chikhladze

74'▲N. Ugrekhelidze←▼L. Tskhadadze

81'▲G. Bukhaidze←▼R. Kvernadze

Samgurali substitutes

KhokhonishviliUgrekhelidzeBukhaidzeNaverianiShekriladzeSaghinadzeMemarnishvili