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Samgurali vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samgurali
Samgurali
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
12/19/2020Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Relegation RoundStadioni 26 Maisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Samgurali50%
×Draw26%
Chikhura Sachkhere25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samgurali
1.54
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.01

Samgurali creates 52% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 28 away

creates per match

Samgurali
1.52
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Samgurali
1.09
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw
75%
Samgurali or Chikhura Sachkhere
74%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
50%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+
25%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals
79%
Samgurali 2+ goals
45%
Samgurali 3+ goals
20%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
64%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
27%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)
67%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.52 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Samgurali defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Samgurali scores more
50%
level
26%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
25%

Samgurali at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samgurali vs Chikhura Sachkhere

Samgurali beat Chikhura Sachkhere 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadioni 26 Maisi in Tskhaltubo.