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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
5/23/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 15Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere32%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Batumi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.27
Dinamo Batumi
1.53

Dinamo Batumi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 128 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
57%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Dinamo Batumi
75%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
68%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
72%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
36%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
14%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
32%
level
25%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
43%

Dinamo Batumi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Chikhura Sachkhere 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on May 23, 2019.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi).