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Chikhura Sachkhere vs Aberdeen — UEFA Europa League 2018

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
7/25/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundBoris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere44%
×Draw33%
Aberdeen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.04
Aberdeen
0.67

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.75
Aberdeen
0.83

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.50
Aberdeen
1.33

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
77%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Aberdeen
67%
Draw or Aberdeen
56%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
18%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
65%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
28%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
9%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
49%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
15%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
65%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.75 + Aberdeen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Aberdeen attack 0.83 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
44%
level
33%
Aberdeen scores more
23%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chikhura Sachkhere vs Aberdeen

Chikhura Sachkhere and Aberdeen drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on July 25, 2019.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.