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Aberdeen vs Chikhura Sachkhere — UEFA Europa League 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
8/1/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aberdeen69%
×Draw17%
Chikhura Sachkhere14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
2.46
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.00

Aberdeen creates 146% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
2.67
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.00

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.00
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.25

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
86%
Aberdeen or Chikhura Sachkhere
83%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
31%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
47%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
91%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
70%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
44%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
63%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
26%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
83%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 2.67 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.00 + Aberdeen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Aberdeen scores more
69%
level
17%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
14%

Aberdeen at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Aberdeen 5–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Aberdeen beat Chikhura Sachkhere 5-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 1, 2019.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.