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Chievo vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Chievo
Chievo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
10/20/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Chievo50%
×Draw26%
Ascoli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chievo
1.52
Ascoli
0.95

Chievo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 114 away

creates per match

Chievo
1.54
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Chievo
0.82
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Chievo+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chievo ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chievo or draw
76%
Chievo or Ascoli
74%
Draw or Ascoli
50%

Winning margin

Chievo wins by 2+
26%
Ascoli wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chievo 1+ goals
78%
Chievo 2+ goals
45%
Chievo 3+ goals
20%
Ascoli 1+ goals
61%
Ascoli 2+ goals
25%
Ascoli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chievo (draw refunded)
68%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chievo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chievo attack 1.54 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Chievo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chievo scores more
50%
level
26%
Ascoli scores more
24%

Chievo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Chievo 2–0 Ascoli

Chievo beat Ascoli 2-0 in Serie B on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.