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Ascoli vs Chievo — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chievo
Chievo
1/23/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Ascoli38%
×Draw29%
Chievo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.18
Chievo
1.07

Ascoli creates 10% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Chievo
1.05

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Chievo
1.18

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
67%
Ascoli or Chievo
71%
Draw or Chievo
62%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
16%
Chievo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
69%
Ascoli 2+ goals
33%
Ascoli 3+ goals
12%
Chievo 1+ goals
66%
Chievo 2+ goals
29%
Chievo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
54%
Chievo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Chievo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Chievo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Chievo attack 1.05 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ascoli scores more
38%
level
29%
Chievo scores more
33%

Ascoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Ascoli 0–0 Chievo

Ascoli and Chievo drew 0-0 in Serie B on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.