Chicago Red Stars W 2–1 Angel City W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Angel City W

A. Schlegel 90'

J. Joseph 49'

M. Moriya 23'

11/2/2025

NWSL Women · Round 18SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W35%

×Draw25%

Angel City W40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Chicago Red Stars W

1.33

Angel City W

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

1.30

creates per match

1.04

1.83

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.30

Angel City W

1.04

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.83

Angel City W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

60%

Chicago Red Stars W or Angel City W

75%

Draw or Angel City W

65%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

15%

Angel City W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

74%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

38%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

15%

Angel City W 1+ goals

76%

Angel City W 2+ goals

42%

Angel City W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

47%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Angel City W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Angel City W attack 1.04 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

35%

level

25%

Angel City W scores more

40%

Angel City W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Joseph

Chicago Red Stars W · M

7.3

Match Events

23'

M. Moriya↳ N. Martin

30'

Maiara Niehues

49'

J. Joseph↳ N. Gomes

51'

Jameese JosephGoal confirmed

56'

Taylor Malham

58'

C. Press← S. Jonsdottir

59'

K. Fuller← Maiara Niehues

73'

P. Chilufya← R. Tiernan

73'

J. Endo← M. Moriya

75'

M. Hayashi← L. Nesbeth

75'

Ludmila← N. Gomes

84'

N. Kuikka← C. Biegalski

90+12'

A. Cook← J. Joseph

90+2'

A. Riley← G. Thompson

90'

A. Schlegel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoAngel

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots9

2Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target4

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

291Total Passes228

224Accurate Passes176

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1