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Angel City W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2025

Angel City W
Angel City W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
S. Leroux 90+1'
A. Thompson 6'
0 B. Franklin 45+10'
9/1/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 14BMO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Angel City W55%
×Draw23%
Chicago Red Stars W22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angel City W
1.81
Chicago Red Stars W
1.06

Angel City W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Angel City W
1.44
Chicago Red Stars W
0.68

allows per match

Angel City W
1.44
Chicago Red Stars W
2.18

finishing

Angel City W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angel City W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Angel City W or draw
78%
Angel City W or Chicago Red Stars W
77%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
45%

Winning margin

Angel City W wins by 2+
31%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Angel City W 1+ goals
84%
Angel City W 2+ goals
54%
Angel City W 3+ goals
27%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
65%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
29%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Angel City W (draw refunded)
71%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angel City W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angel City W attack 1.44 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chicago Red Stars W attack 0.68 + Angel City W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Angel City W scores more
55%
level
23%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
22%

Angel City W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Angel City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
S. LerouxAngel City WAngel City W · F
7.6

Match Events

6'
A. Thompson
22'
Hannah AndersonGoal cancelled
45+10'
0 B. Franklin↳ N. Kuikka
46'
K. Zelem← K. Fuller
46'
S. Leroux← M. Bright
58'
Júlia Bianchi← M. Swanson
60'
M. A. Vignola← M. Curry
70'
C. Press← A. Thompson
72'
Katie Zelem
77'
R. Rodríguez← M. Hammond
86'
S. Groom← J. Joseph
86'
A. Schlegel← J. Grosso
90+3'
Nádia Gomes← J. Bike
90+1'
S. Leroux↳ M. A. Vignola

Possession

61%Angel

Shots

13Angel

Pass accuracy

54%Angel

Statistics

AngelChicago
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots13
8Corners5
8Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots13
7On Target2
3Off Target8
3Blocked3
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
61%Possession39%
480Total Passes313
395Accurate Passes223
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Angel City W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Angel City W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-1 in NWSL Women on September 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Thompson (6'), 0 B. Franklin (45+10'), S. Leroux (90+1').

Angel City W controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles, California.