Chicago Fire II 8–0 Chicago Dutch Lions

Chicago Fire II

FT

8 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Chicago Dutch Lions

6/23/2022

USL League Two · Round 46SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chicago Fire II75%

×Draw14%

Chicago Dutch Lions11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Fire IIExpected goals in this matchChicago Dutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.13

Chicago Fire II

3.04

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.13

Chicago Fire II creates 169% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

2.61

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Chicago Fire II

2.61

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.20

allows per match

Chicago Fire II

1.06

Chicago Dutch Lions

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Fire II ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Chicago Fire II or draw

89%

Chicago Fire II or Chicago Dutch Lions

86%

Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions

25%

Winning margin

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

55%

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

95%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

80%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

57%

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals

68%

Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals

31%

Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

87%

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Fire II at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Fire II attack 2.61 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 3.04

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chicago Fire II scores more

75%

level

14%

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more

11%

Chicago Fire II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff