Chicago Dutch Lions 1–7 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Dutch Lions

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

Chicago Fire II

6/26/2022

USL League Two · Round 50Joe Bean Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chicago Dutch Lions12%

×Draw14%

Chicago Fire II74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.04

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.17

Chicago Fire II

3.04

Chicago Fire II creates 160% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

1.10

creates per match

2.76

3.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

1.10

Chicago Fire II

2.76

allows per match

Chicago Dutch Lions

3.33

Chicago Fire II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Dutch Lions ↓

Chicago Fire II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Chicago Dutch Lions or draw

26%

Chicago Dutch Lions or Chicago Fire II

86%

Draw or Chicago Fire II

88%

Winning margin

Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+

4%

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals

69%

Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals

33%

Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals

11%

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

95%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

80%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

14%

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.10 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chicago Dutch Lions scores more

12%

level

14%

Chicago Fire II scores more

74%

Chicago Fire II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff