Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chiba vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
7/5/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiba44%
×Draw21%
Cheng Fung35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
2.04
Cheng Fung
1.80

Chiba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
65%
Chiba or Cheng Fung
79%
Draw or Cheng Fung
56%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
25%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
87%
Chiba 2+ goals
60%
Chiba 3+ goals
33%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
83%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
54%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
56%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chiba scores more
44%
level
21%
Cheng Fung scores more
35%

Chiba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiba vs Cheng Fung

Chiba and Cheng Fung drew 1-1 in Primeira Divisão on July 5, 2026.