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Cheng Fung vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Chiba
Chiba
3/22/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cheng Fung34%
×Draw20%
Chiba46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheng Fung
2.00
Chiba
2.31

Chiba creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cheng Fung
2.19
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Cheng Fung
2.13
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw
54%
Cheng Fung or Chiba
80%
Draw or Chiba
66%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+
18%
Chiba wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals
86%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
59%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
32%
Chiba 1+ goals
90%
Chiba 2+ goals
67%
Chiba 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
43%
Chiba (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.00

Chiba attack 2.50 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cheng Fung scores more
34%
level
20%
Chiba scores more
46%

Chiba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheng Fung vs Chiba

Chiba beat Cheng Fung 5-2 in Primeira Divisão on March 22, 2026.