Chiba 3–1 Artilheiros: Result & Stats

Chiba

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Artilheiros

6/21/2026

Primeira Divisão · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chiba81%

×Draw10%

Artilheiros8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChibaExpected goals in this matchArtilheiros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.23

1.42

Chiba

4.23

Artilheiros

1.42

Chiba creates 198% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

2.71

creates per match

1.13

1.71

allows per match

5.75

creates per match

Chiba

2.71

Artilheiros

1.13

allows per match

Chiba

1.71

Artilheiros

5.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par

Artilheiros+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Artilheiros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Chiba or draw

92%

Chiba or Artilheiros

90%

Draw or Artilheiros

19%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+

66%

Artilheiros wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals

98%

Chiba 2+ goals

91%

Chiba 3+ goals

76%

Artilheiros 1+ goals

76%

Artilheiros 2+ goals

41%

Artilheiros 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)

91%

Artilheiros (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Artilheiros away — creates 1.13, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Artilheiros defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 4.23

Artilheiros attack 1.13 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Chiba scores more

81%

level

10%

Artilheiros scores more

8%

Chiba at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff